Cabdi oo ka tagay maraykanka oo USD laga adeegsado ayaa tagay Ethiopia oo 1USD uu u dhigmo 119ETB, haddana Kenya ayuu tagay oo 1USD uu la mid yahay 128KES, waxaan aragnaa farqi u dhaxeeya lacagaha, haddaba maxaa meenay farqiga?
Inta aanan su’aashan ka jawaabin bal aan si kooban isula eegno taariikhda lacagaha.
Taariikhda lacagaha
Waqti fog waxa ay lacagtu ku xidhnaan jirtay dahabka habkaasna waxaa lagu magacaabaa “Gold standard“.
Tani waxay ka dhigan tahay lacag walba oo la daabaco waxay u dhigmaysay qiime go’an oo dahab ah.
Balse ganacsigii iyo sicir bararka oo kordhay dartii waxaa la waayay dahab ku filan in lacagta la daabacayo maadaama loo baahday lacag badan.
1970kii ayay dalalka badankood ka guureen habkii “Gold standard” ahaa oo ay u guureen “Fiat money“.
Fiat money kuma xidhna dahabka waa lacag maadaama dawladdu ay qiimo u yeeshay uun qiimo yeelanaysa dadkuna ay ku raacayaan.
Taasi waxay ka dhigtay qiimaha lacagtu inay ku xidhnaato hadba rabitaanka dadka oo haddii la Rabo lacagta qiimo ayay yeelan haddii la rabinna wax qiimo ah ma yeelanayso oo way qiimo dhaci.
Sidee ayay baahida iyo lacagta suuqa taalla u dheelli tiraan qiimaha lacagta?
1- sicir barar
sicir bararku waa marka ay lacagtu bilawdo inay qiimo dhacdo, waana marka ay lacagta suuqa taalla ay ka badan tahay alaabta iyo adeegga suuqa yaalla.
Sicir bararku qiimaha lacagta uma fiicna maadaama cid rabtaa lacag qiimo dhacaysa aynan jirin.
Taas waxaa tusaale kuugu filan lacagtii Zimbabwean Dollar oo 1980kii ka qiimo badnayd Dollarka u dhigmaysayna $1.35, balse sababo la xidhiidha sicir barar, horumar la’aan iyo musuqmaasuq 2000 halkii USD waxa uu u dhigmayay 600,000ZWD.
2- xaddiga ribada
Xaddiga ribada ee dalalku waxa ay saamayn xooggan ku leedahay qiimaha lacagta dalalkaas.
Xaddiga ribadu waa lacagta dulsaarka ah ee ay dawladdu u jaangoyso dalkeeda tusaale haddi xaddiga ribada ee dalka tahay 10% taasi macnaheedu waa haddii $1000 aad amaahato waxaad bixinaysaa $1100, $100 waa dulsaar ama ribo.
Haddaba xaddiga ribada marka baanka dhaxe ee dalku kor u qaado waxay soo jiidanaysaa maalgashi caalami ah maadaama ay dulsaar fiican bixinayaan taas ayaa ka dhigaysa baahida loo qabo lacagtaas inay biirto qiimaha lacagtuna la korodho.
Tusaale Jhon ayaa Bond-ga dawladda maraykanka ku maalgashaday $1000 xaddiga ribaduna yahay 5% muddo 10 sano ah, sannad walba $50 ayaa dulsaar kuu ah $1000na 10sano kadib waa laguu soo celinayaa, mar walba oo xaddiga ribada kor loo qaadana waxa ku soo galaya waa badanaya sidaas ayay u soo jiidanaysaa maalgashiga.
Haddaba haddii Dalka jarmalka xaddiga ribadiisu yahay 2% ka maraykankuna yahay 5% maalgashadayaasha ayaa lacagta kala bixi baangiyada jarmalka iyo maalgashigoodaba una wareejin maraykanka taas ayaa dollarka qiimo u yeelaysa Euro-dana qiimo tiraysa.
Taasi kama dhigna in dal walba sida uu doono u kordhin karo xaddiga ribada, maadaama xaddiga ribadu yahay dulsaarka lacagta la daynsanayo saaran waxaa adkaanaysa dadka deggan dalka inay wax deynsadaan taas oo ka dhigan in aqallo aynan dhisan karin shaqana ay furi karayn taasna waxay keenaysaa shaqaalaysiinta oo yaraata kana dhigan in dhaqaalaha dalka hoos u dhac ku yimaaddo.
Balse bangiga dhaxe ayaa jaangooya xaddiga ribada isaga oo eegaya xaaladda dalku uu ku sugan yahay.
3- xaaladda dalka iyo maalgashiga caalamiga ah
1970kii markii uu shiinuhu u furay suuqiisa maalgashiga caalamiga ah waxaa yimid shiinaha shirkado badan oo maalgashi ku sameeyay, haddaba shirkaddaasi waxay u baahanayan lacagta shiinaha ee CNY, taasi oo keenaysa in baahida CNY korodho oo qiimahooduna la kordho.
Shirkaduhu dhankooda dal walba ma maalgashadaan ee waxay eegtaan dal xasilloon oo xeerarkiisa isbaddal badan ka muuqan oo ay lacagtooda ku aammini karaan.
4- Dhoofinta iyo soo dejinta
Marka ay Japan ka iibinayso gawaadhideeda dalalka kale , waxay u baahanayan lacagta Japanese yen ee JPY, taasi oo JPY u yeelaysa qiimo.
Balse haddii Japan ay salliid kala soo dagto Australia waxay baahanaysaa AUD oo lacagta Australia ayaa qiimo yeelanaysa.
Dalalku waxa ay ku dadaalaan inay wax badan dhoofiyaan si ay lacagtoodu u noqoto mid loo baahan yahay.
5- Qiimo xaddidan
Hadduu aad rabto in lacagtaadu qiimo yeelato adiga oo aanan u dadaalin kaliya adeegso xeeladdan.
Tani waa hab lagaga dhigayo lacagta dalka mid ku xidhan dal kale oo dhaqaale ahaan xasilloon lacagtiisuna adag tahay.
Sida dalka Brunei lacagtiisu waxa ay ku xidhan tahay lacagta Singapore oo ah lacag adag dalkeeduna dhaqaale adag leeyahay.
Balse ogow marka dalka ay lacagtaadu ku xidhan tahay ay dhaqaale xumo hesho lacagtaaduna way raacaysaa.
Kuwani qaar ka mid ah sababaha ay u kala qiimo duwan yihiin lacagaha dalalku.
Maxaa dhammaan dalalku hal lacag u adeegsan waayeen?
Arrinku uma fududa sida ay su’aashu u fududdahay!
Tusaale Euro waxaa adeegsada dalalka reer yurub waana lacag yurub oo dhan aad ku socon karto adiga oo aan sarrif u baahan, balse taasi kama dhigno in dal kasta u madax bannaan yahay baddalidda xeerarkiisa maaliyadeed maadaama ay wada hoos imanayaan bangiga dhaxe ee yurub isla markaana isbaddalka ku yimaadda hal dal uu saameynayo dalalka kale oo dhan.
Haddii hal lacag la wada adeegsado waxay noqonaysaa in dhib dal kumannaan kiiloomitir kuu jira ka dhacday ay ku saamayso, la isla wada jabo mar qudha.
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